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What the Polls Say: The Latest Snapshot

by Marquette Turner

in News & Views, Real Estate Radar

The latest Newspoll shows while the Coalition has slightly narrowed the gap on Labor, it still has ground to make up

The poll of 20 Nov in the Australian newspaper shows the Coalition closing the gap slightly on the primary vote, up 1point to 41 per cent. This is 5 points behind Labor, which has dropped 2 points to 46 per cent.

On a two party-preferred basis, the Coalition has climbed one point to 46 per cent, eight points behind Labor on 54 per cent.

The gap between John Howard and Kevin Rudd has also narrowed slightly, 42 per cent would prefer Mr Howard as Prime Minister, up 2 points, compared to 46 per cent opting for Mr Rudd.
It’s the closest preferred PM result in six months.

On the issue of economic management, John Howard has maintained his lead, despite an unprecedented interest rate rise during the election campaign.

As for Malcolm Turnbull’s seat of Wentworth (Marquette Turner HQ), a new poll suggests he is facing an uphill battle to retain his seat.

A Nielsen poll of 901 Wentworth voters, published in Fairfax newspapers, shows Greens preferences could give Labor’s George Newhouse, leading to a Labor win in the seat for the first time since federation.

Even though Mr Turnbull leads the primary vote by 45 per cent to 36 per cent, Greens candidate Susan Jarnason is attracting 17 per cent support in the primary vote and her preferences will flow to Labor, leaving Mr Newhouse leading Mr Turnbull by 52 percent to 48 percent on a two party preferred basis.

This of course does not factor in the shadow over Mr Newhouse’s head as to whether he is inellegible to be a candidate. A Liberal Party spokesperson cites Mr Newhouse, as well as 12 other Labor candidates throughout Australia, whose candidacy is questionable. The ALP completely disputes such assertions and whilst this could lead to a spate of by-elections post-election, it could also shore up support for the ALP leading up to the election as voters turn against the Coalition for raising such assertions.

Finally, a special telephone Morgan Poll of 435 electors conducted last night (November 20) shows a swing (0.8%) to the Liberals in the five Western Australian marginal seats of Brand, Cowan, Hasluck, Stirling and Swan.

In these five key WA seats, Liberal primary support is 44%, ALP 42.5%, Greens 9.5%, One Nation 1% and Independent/Others 3%.

After allocating preferences the two-party preferred result is Liberal 50.5%, ALP 49.5% – a swing of 0.8% to the Liberals since the 2004 election. Simon Turner

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